Weekly Briefing: Iranian Oil, the GOP and Elections in Australia & Canada
Trump’s foreign policy is reshaping domestic politics everywhere.
It’s been a wild week…
Trump cracked down on Iranian oil exports, axed his National Security Advisor, and—somewhat ironically—helped pave the way for centre-left momentum in elections across Canada and Australia. Here’s what’s really going on:
Trump: Buy Iranian Oil? Say Goodbye to the U.S. Economy
Trump declared that any country purchasing Iranian oil would be barred from any business with the United States. This maximalist stance, aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional proxies, goes beyond nuclear diplomacy—it targets the financial arteries of the Iran-China-Russia triangle. On a good day, China accounts for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil and petrochemical exports, making it the real audience for this announcement.
In effect, this is less a sanction and more a pressure point on the Eurasian strategic architecture. The "Axis of Resistance" may be informal and overstated, but its operational logic—shared interests in weakening U.S. dominance—is real. The move evokes Sir Halford Mackinder’s “Heartland Theory,” which framed Eurasian control as the linchpin of global power. Today, that contest is fought through supply chains, energy corridors, and sanctions regimes, not tanks.
Neoclassical realist take: The embargo isn’t just about power—it’s about perception. It shows how Trump translates global threats into domestic strength. Facing elite fragmentation and a restive base, this policy shores up nationalist credentials while bypassing multilateral frameworks. It’s a playbook of coercive unilateralism—a retrenched hegemon flexing with limited tools.
GOP: Signal-Gate and the Intra-Party Struggle
“Signal-gate”, a leak involving internal GOP strategy from encrypted messages, ended with Trump firing National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. The fallout reveals a lot: namely, that Trump governs through a fluid mix of instinct, paranoia, and performative dominance.
Despite the GOP’s electoral grip, the party remains factionalised behind the scenes. The firing wasn’t about failure; it was about control. It sends a clear message to dissenters: loyalty beats competence.
Neoclassical realist take: This is domestic fragmentation in action. Trump’s foreign policy isn’t driven by strategy; it’s shaped by internal patronage networks and institutional drift. Neoclassical realism reads this as a signal of weakened state coherence. The U.S. may appear dominant abroad, but its internal machinery is fracturing.
Elections in Australia and Canada: Trump Fatigue and the Centre-Left Surge
In Canada, the Liberal Party widened its lead after an aggressive right-wing campaign fizzled, helped along by Trump’s lingering shadow: tariffs, diplomatic slights, and a broader disdain for multilateralism.
Australia is heading the same way. At the time of writing, polls suggest voters are putting their money on centre-left Labour, bolstered by domestic concerns over the cost of living, a certain level of disaffection with U.S.-style populism and a renewed focus on domestic resilience and regional diplomacy.
Neoclassical realist take: America’s symbolic retreat from global stewardship is shifting the political centre of gravity elsewhere. Australia and Canada aren’t just reacting to policy, they’re reacting to decline theatre. Neoclassical realism highlights how global systemic shifts are interpreted through domestic narratives, electoral logic, and elite anxieties about a post-American order.
And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading along this week.
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