India–Pakistan on the Verge

When two nuclear-armed rivals butt heads, there’s always a deeper story behind the bluster.

Rooted in the violent partition of British India in 1947, the India–Pakistan rivalry has hardened into a structural condition of South Asian geopolitics. It’s been punctuated by wars, proxy skirmishes, and a persistent distrust that runs deeper than the Line of Contact. But the recent terrorist attack in Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians, has sparked a fresh escalation — complete with diplomatic expulsions, suspended treaties, and now, what both sides describe as imminent military readiness.

Neoclassical realism helps us move beyond alarmist headlines. What we’re seeing isn’t just a bilateral spat — it’s the convergence of systemic uncertainty with volatile domestic politics. As the global order drifts into multipolarity and great power consensus erodes, old rivalries like this become more prone to flashpoints, not less. And here’s why: